One ought to by no means have a know-how convention with out somebody offering predictions. And at The Wall Road Journal’s WSJ Tech Dwell convention this week in Laguna Seashore, Calif., the predictor-in-chief was Michael Wolf, founder, and CEO of Activate, a consulting agency.
Wolf laid out his present pondering on the tech sector on stage on the convention this morning, with extra element in a 198-page deck accessible on Activate’s web site. The guts of the report is a collection of 16 predictions. Right here’s a condensed rundown:
• Web and media companies will develop 3.6% via 2023, sooner than the gross home product, including $300 billion in income to succeed in $2.Three trillion. Most of that development will come from client spending, with projected development charges of 4.6% for advert income, 4.4% for web entry, and 1.8% for paid content material. Subscription revenues are projected to develop by 3.1%.
• Resulting from multitasking, the typical American has a 31-hour day, 12 of that are spent consuming know-how and media. Forty-one p.c of these hours are video. Sleep? Simply six hours and 27 minutes. And by 2023, the full media day is predicted to develop one other 16 minutes.
• Media and tech firms must ID and “super-serve” energy customers “whose spend, time, and influences far exceed these of different customers.” They spend 2.5 occasions as a lot cash on media providers as others, spend 1.Four occasions as a lot time on media, and purchase celebrity-related merchandise at 4.6 occasions the speed of others.
• The social-media world is splintering. Activate counts 15 social networks with a minimum of 300 million customers. Seventy-two p.c of individuals use greater than two social networks. The typical variety of social networks per particular person will develop from 5.Eight at this time to 10.2 in 2023.
• E-commerce will double by 2023. Eighty p.c of on-line gross sales for the highest 20 e-commerce firms are from third-party sellers. Direct-to-consumer manufacturers will emerge in each main product class.
• Digital marketplaces like Zillow Group (ticker: Z), Uber Applied sciences (UBER), Craigslist, and others are altering the dynamics of virtually each main providers trade.
• Videogaming is the subsequent streaming battlefront: Each main gaming and tech firm will create cloud-based gaming providers.
• Esports will hit $7 billion in income and 700 million international viewership by 2023.
• Common video consumption is over 5 hours a day however will probably be flat, with extra time-switching to digital video from conventional TV. Dwell TV viewership has grown sooner than nonlive TV as measured by advert views, pushed by sports activities. The typical viewer may have 4.9 providers by 2023. Whereas SVOD (subscription video on demand) attracts most client consideration and spend, many of the cash within the video remains to be on conventional TV.
• Sports activities betting will begin to resemble monetary buying and selling. Wagering will drive extra sports activities viewership. Because of the push to legalization, sports activities betting will develop 77% via 2023 to shut to $150 billion. Wagering in New Jersey will surpass that in Nevada in 2019.
• Curiosity in sports activities within the U.S. stays excessive, with greater than two-thirds of the inhabitants following a minimum of one sport. Twenty-nine p.c have began following a brand new sport previously three years.
• Customers take heed to solely a small proportion of songs, with these greater than three years outdated accounting for 50% of complete music streams. Alphabet’s (GOOGL) YouTube is the most-used service by music listeners.
• Podcast listening is forecast to develop 17% yearly via 2023; listeners will nearly double. Conventional media firms will dominate. Apple (AAPL) is the dominant platform. Podcast advert income is predicted to nearly triple by 2023.
• The Age of the Networked Physique is starting. There will probably be an explosion of well being and health know-how, with a mixed $16 billion U.S. market by 2023.
• Digital-first client monetary providers like Zelle and Venmo have acquired thousands and thousands of shoppers in a really quick time. New monetary firms are upending banking.
• Customers will proceed to spend extra on connectivity. The market is $700 billion globally and will develop additional, rising 7.4% yearly via 2023. Corporations are investing in 5G, low-earth-orbit satellites, and fiber to the house. 5G cellular adoption ought to attain 55% by 2023.